Since Nolan Arenado joined the St. Louis Cardinals, the team has consistently fallen short of expectations. Considering his age, hefty salary, and where the franchise currently stands, it seemed only a matter of time before Arenado would be playing elsewhere in 2025.
The Cardinals made an effort to trade him this past offseason, with the Houston Astros being the only team that showed real interest. However, just as a deal was reportedly nearing completion, Arenado used his full no-trade clause to block it—throwing a wrench into St. Louis’ offseason plans. Despite being stuck with the eight-time All-Star, the Cardinals have surged unexpectedly, now sitting just 2.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central—a scenario that, oddly enough, might be working in their favor.
But is it really? With the trade deadline approaching, talk about Arenado’s future is heating up again. After a thrilling win over the Cubs on Tuesday, Arenado attempted to put those rumors to rest. While things feel upbeat at Busch Stadium right now, there’s a chance the Cardinals could eventually regret how recent months have played out.
In Tuesday’s postgame comments—shared by MLB.com’s John Denton—Arenado admitted he didn’t expect the team to be winning at this pace. He noted that while he anticipated strong defense and decent pitching, this level of competitiveness has re-energized him.
“I like playing in games that matter,” Arenado said. “I’ve achieved individual accolades, but now I want to win something meaningful as a team. It’s been a long time since I’ve been this excited to show up at the ballpark.”
Arenado’s desire has always been to play postseason baseball. That’s what drove him to force a move from the Rockies to the Cardinals. Now that the team is back in the mix, it’s hard to imagine him agreeing to waive his no-trade clause—especially not when he’s finally getting the kind of competition he craves.
If St. Louis keeps winning, it’s unlikely Arenado will be traded. The team seems poised to reach October baseball, and their current success feels more like a legitimate turnaround than a fluke. Fans, starved for winning baseball after two disappointing seasons, have reason to be optimistic. But the front office may be facing a tough reality.
Long-term, holding onto Arenado could become a problem. Despite recent wins, the Cardinals don’t quite stack up against the NL’s elite teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, or Phillies. The pitching is showing cracks, and while the offense has improved, the roster still feels more average than elite.
This puts president John Mozeliak in a tough spot. Making a push this year could come at the cost of the franchise’s future. Yet, selling pieces would be hard to justify given the current standings—and with Arenado making it clear he intends to stay, one of the team’s top trade assets is off the table.
Privately, the front office might prefer to offload a large chunk of Arenado’s contract. They have solid infield options ready to step in—Thomas Saggese, the red-hot Nolan Gorman, and top prospect JJ Wetherholt are waiting in the wings. Moving Arenado would free up money and playing time, and potentially net some prospects for the future. But this unexpected success has complicated everything, leaving the Cardinals stuck in a difficult position.