If you’re into reality TV — which I personally am not — you might be enjoying the ongoing “will they or won’t they?” drama involving Nolan Arenado, the St. Louis Cardinals, and various trade rumors that have been swirling since this past offseason.
In true reality-show fashion, an old flame may be rekindling, as the Houston Astros have once again emerged as a potential destination for Arenado — the classic “maybe now the timing’s right” scenario.
According to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, the Cardinals and Astros have revisited trade talks involving Arenado. Although no deal is currently in the works, this is a noteworthy development, especially considering how things unfolded between the two sides earlier in the offseason. At that time, a deal had been agreed upon, but Arenado declined to waive his no-trade clause — not ruling out a move entirely, but preferring to wait and see how the offseason progressed. The Astros’ trade of Kyle Tucker at the time raised concerns for Arenado about their competitiveness going into 2025.
Recently, Astros GM Dana Brown seemed to shut the door on a trade for Arenado, telling USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, “We tried to convince him that we’re not rebuilding, that the window is always open with our owner. We planned to compete in 2025 and beyond. He misunderstood our plan.”
After that, the Astros signed first baseman Christian Walker and appeared to move on — until third baseman Isaac Paredes suffered a significant hamstring injury, putting Houston back in the market for help at the hot corner.
Arenado, meanwhile, is having a rough season. He’s slashing just .235/.295/.368 with 10 home runs through 94 games, resulting in an 85 wRC+ — far from his usual production. July has been especially brutal, with a .163/.226/.204 line and a 24 wRC+, dropping to just 14 since the All-Star break. He’s been dealing with multiple nagging injuries, which could help explain the steep decline, but this slump isn’t entirely new — his offensive regression has been a long time coming.
As the trade deadline approaches, several teams reportedly in need of third base help — including the Cubs, Phillies, Mariners, Tigers, Reds, Brewers, and yes, the Astros — have been linked to Arenado, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.
The Cardinals, eager to shed Arenado’s hefty contract, may have to eat part of the remaining salary to make a deal happen. Still, their top priority is clearing as much payroll as possible. With attendance dropping, a reduced TV revenue stream, and Chaim Bloom looking to reshape the roster heading into the offseason, the team is aiming to free up flexibility and move past some of the financial commitments inherited from John Mozeliak’s front-office era.